Hurricane Simon 2026 – Track, Category and Warnings for Mexico

The map below is the National Hurricane Center’s official cone graphic from advisory 12 (10 Oct, 09:00 UTC). NHC issues a new version with every advisory — use the link below for the latest. We do not draw our own track — we show the source product.

Graphic: NOAA / National Hurricane Center (US government, public domain). If it does not load, open the cone on the NHC website.

Check current storm cells and rainfall on our live storm radar; wind maps and other real-time weather trackers are on our live tools page.

Successive NHC advisories. Wind is the 1-minute maximum sustained speed; gusts are higher.

At 09:00 UTC hurricane-force winds extended only about 15 mi (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds about 70 mi (110 km). Simon’s wind damage will depend heavily on exactly where the eye crosses; rain will affect a much broader band of the Sierra Madre del Sur.

Coastal warnings are issued by the Government of Mexico and published in NHC advisories. Status as of 10 Oct, 09:00 UTC (advisory 12):

The states most exposed are Colima (Manzanillo), coastal Jalisco (Barra de Navidad, Costalegre, Puerto Vallarta), western Michoacán and southern Nayarit (Riviera Nayarit). Warnings can change with any advisory.

Along Mexico’s mountainous Pacific coast, water — not wind — often causes the most deaths and damage. NHC hazard forecast (advisory 12):

There were no official casualty, evacuation or damage figures at the time of writing. We will add them only from government sources.

Rapid intensification (RI) is defined by NHC as an increase of at least 30 knots (35 mph) in maximum winds within 24 hours. Simon’s 30 mph jump between two advisories six hours apart put it well on course to exceed that threshold.

1. Very warm, deep ocean water — sea-surface temperatures off southwest Mexico are typically near 29–30°C (84–86°F) in October.
2. Low vertical wind shear — similar winds through the troposphere let the storm build a tight, upright core.
3. Moist mid-levels — dry air would otherwise erode the thunderstorms around the eye.

Small hurricanes respond quickly to favourable conditions, but they can also weaken quickly over land. Intensity forecasts therefore carry more uncertainty than track forecasts.

If you are on Mexico’s Pacific coast or flying there in the next few days, do not rely on social-media maps. Check in this order:

1. State Protección Civil (Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Michoacán) — evacuations, shelters and road closures.
2. Your airline and the airport — Manzanillo (ZLO) and Puerto Vallarta (PVR) may suspend operations. We had no official closure information; assume neither a closure nor normal service.
3. Your hotel or host — shelter-in-place plan, water and power backup.
4. Your government’s travel service — e.g. US STEP, UK FCDO travel advice — and register your trip.
5. Your travel insurer — many policies exclude events named before purchase.

After the storm, the main risks are flash floods, landslides on mountain roads such as Federal Highway 200, downed power lines and contaminated water. Do not return to affected areas until authorities say it is safe.

Guidance from the US National Weather Service (NWS) and NHC that applies anywhere a tropical cyclone threatens:

• Before: know whether you are in a storm-surge risk area; stock water, medicines, a flashlight and a charged power bank. If authorities order an evacuation, leave immediately.
• During: shelter in a small interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows and glass doors. The calm of the eye is brief — winds return quickly from the opposite direction.
• After: return only when officials say it is safe; avoid flooded roads and downed power lines; never run a generator indoors or in a garage (carbon monoxide).

The same two days brought three more events that we cover from official sources:

• the M7.7 Panama earthquake
• Hurricane Isaias in Florida and Alabama
• the tornado in Marsala and Petrosino, Sicily

• NOAA / National Hurricane Center — Hurricane Simon (EP202026) advisory archive, advisories 10A, 11A and 12;
• NHC — forecast cone graphics;
• Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Conagua) — Mexico’s official weather service;
• NHC — Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
• NWS — Hurricane Action, After the Hurricane; NHC — Hurricane Preparedness;

This article reflects official advisories at the times stated. It does not replace warnings from Mexican authorities or decisions by airlines. Casualty, evacuation and damage figures are added only after official confirmation.