Aurora Alert: Will the Northern Lights Be Visible in Poland on February 5–6?

AURORA ALERT (Poland) • Updated: February 4, 2026, 16:30 CET • Sources: NOAA SWPC

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Back to: Aurora Alerts • Check now: Northern Lights Poland radar (live)

Updates added live

Rule: I add new updates at the top of the list.

• February 6, 2026 (13:30 CET) — NOAA forecast update (3-Day Forecast): the maximum expected Kp for February 6–8 is 4.67 (G1). NOAA indicates that G1 is likely on February 6 and 8 in a scenario of two glancing CME impacts. In NOAA’s hourly breakdown for February 6, the highest window is 21:00–00:00 UTC, which is 22:00–01:00 CET, with Kp around 4.67 (G1).
• February 5, 2026 (15:20 CET) — SWPC update: region AR 4366 continues to produce strong flares, including an X1.5 flare at 14:18 UTC. SWPC maintains the scenario of a possible glancing impact at Earth from the CME associated with the earlier X8.1 flare, with a possible effect in the February 5–6 window.
• February 5, 2026 (04:00 CET) — Data confirmation: during the night of February 5, a G1 episode was recorded. Planetary Kp reached 5.33 (G1) at 03:00 UTC, or 04:00 CET, and then dropped to 4.67 at 06:00 UTC, or 07:00 CET.
• February 5, 2026 (15:20 CET) — SWPC update on the X4.2 flare: the event occurred on February 4 at 12:13 UTC, and at that moment the imagery did not show CME signatures. In other words, there was no confirmation that this particular flare added a new eruption toward Earth.
• February 4, 2026 (16:30 CET) — Alert published: NOAA indicates elevated activity from AR 4366 and possible G1 conditions, with Kp up to around 5, in the February 5–6 window.

TL;DR — the key points

• NOAA reports an exceptionally active sunspot region, AR 4366, with a series of strong flares, including X-class flares.
• According to the NOAA forecast, the highest expected geomagnetic conditions in the coming days are G1, with Kp up to around 5.
• The main candidate for aurora activity is a glancing CME impact in the February 5–6 window.
• In Poland, if the weather cooperates, the best chance is in the north, and the aurora may appear more clearly in photos than to the naked eye.

What is happening on the Sun in recent days

• AR 4366 is very active: NOAA reports that since appearing on January 30, the region has generated dozens of C- and M-class flares and several X-class flares, including X8.1 on February 1 and X1.5 on February 3.
• NOAA indicates that the X8.1 flare was associated with a CME whose effect may be a glancing impact at Earth in the February 5–6 window.
• On February 4, NOAA recorded an X4.2 flare; at the time of the update, no clear CME signatures had been identified in the imagery.

Important: a solar flare does not automatically mean aurora in Poland. Auroras depend mainly on the solar wind and the magnetic-field configuration, especially a negative Bz, after a CME or a coronal-hole high-speed stream reaches Earth.

NOAA forecast for the coming days: will the aurora be visible in Poland?

In the NOAA forecast, the highest expected geomagnetic conditions for February 4–6 are around Kp 5, or G1. The reasoning points to possible G1 conditions connected with the arrival of a CME after the X8.1 flare. This means:

• Northern Poland: the chance increases in dark places with an open northern horizon. Often the aurora will show up better on a camera, in night mode or RAW, than to the naked eye.
• Central and southern Poland: with G1 alone it is usually harder. A realistic chance appears if real-time conditions become stronger, for example during a favorable, longer period of negative Bz.
• The biggest unknown is whether the CME will hit more strongly and how Bz will behave during the key hours.

Time window for Poland, CET — when it makes sense to check the sky

NOAA publishes Kp breakdowns in UTC. Below are the same windows in Polish time, CET = UTC+1. Treat them as the best watch windows, not as a guarantee:

• Night of February 5: especially 19:00–22:00 and 22:00–01:00 CET, with the forecast showing an increase toward roughly Kp 4.3–5.0.
• Night of February 6: the most meaningful window is 01:00–04:00 CET, with about Kp 4.7 forecast. Conditions may then remain moderately active later in the day.

Best workflow: 30–60 minutes before going out, check the live parameters section, then the Poland radar and cloud cover. If the conditions are rising and you have a gap in the clouds, it is worth trying.

Checklist: 5 things that decide success in Poland

• Sky: as dark as possible, away from towns, with an open northern horizon.
• Clouds: even thin clouds can kill the aurora view, so clear breaks are the priority.
• Live trend: rising conditions over 30–90 minutes are better than a single short spike.
• Exposure time: give yourself at least 20–40 minutes of observing, because aurora activity often comes in waves.
• Camera or phone: use night mode, a tripod or support, and take several shots in a row. The camera often sees more.

Where to try in Poland? Quick tips

During weaker storms, G1–G2, the north and dark-sky locations make the most sense. Look for:

• coastline or open spaces with a view to the north, away from city glow,
• Warmia and Masuria, with darker skies and open viewing directions,
• the Suwalki region, often darker, although the weather still matters most.

If you are in central or southern Poland, you can still try, but manage expectations. Without a stronger boost, such as sustained negative Bz, it will more often be a photographic glow low above the northern horizon.

For background context to alerts like this, you can also use the guide about when the Northern Lights are visible in Poland. Treat it as a calm explanation of seasonality, observing windows, and the conditions that must align with a current alert.

Related radars and guides

For broader observation planning, use the radars, forecasts, and guides that help you quickly judge whether an aurora alert has a real chance of turning into an observation in Poland.

FAQ: aurora alert and chances of seeing the Northern Lights in Poland

FAQ — short and practical

Can you see the aurora in Poland at around Kp 5?

Sometimes yes, but usually this applies to northern Poland and dark locations — and more often it is an aurora captured by camera. Bz and real-time parameters are crucial.

Why does the forecast sometimes work and sometimes not?

Because it matters whether the CME actually hits Earth and how the magnetic field in the solar wind is oriented. With a glancing impact, the effect may be weaker or shorter.

Which is more important: Kp or Bz?

In practice, the trend and Bz can make a bigger difference than Kp alone. That is why it is always worth checking live parameters before going out.

Sources (NOAA) and what I will update

This alert is based on NOAA SWPC statements and forecasts. If NOAA raises the storm level, for example to G2+, or a confirmed CME appears after later flares, I will add an update within the same Aurora Alerts category.

• NOAA SWPC: 3-Day Forecast
• NOAA SWPC (text): 3-Day Forecast (TXT)
• NOAA SWPC: 3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast (TXT)
• NOAA SWPC news: X1.5 flare + CME information (AR 4366)
• NOAA SWPC news: X4.2 flare (AR 4366)